| Fed Chair | President | Window | CPI | S&P 500 Return | Approx. Real Investor Gain | Major Events |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome H. Powell | Donald Trump | Jan 25 - Present (1yr 3mo) | +4.2% | +22.8% | +18.6% | Inflation normalization trend ⬆️⬆️ Easing-rate expectations ⬆️ AI leadership concentration ⬆️⬆️ |
| Jerome H. Powell | Joe Biden | Jan 21 - Jan 25 (4yr) | +21.4% | +68.1% | +46.7% | Post-COVID reopening ⬆️⬆️ Inflation surge then disinflation ⬇️⬇️⬇️ / ⬆️ Rapid hikes then AI-led rally ⬇️⬇️ / ⬆️⬆️⬆️ |
| Jerome H. Powell | Donald Trump | Feb 18 - Jan 21 (2yr 11mo) | +5.3% | +48.5% | +43.2% | Macro regime transition (2018s) ⬆️/⬇️ Inflation cycle effects ⬇️⬇️ Policy response dynamics ⬆️ |
| Janet L. Yellen | Donald Trump | Jan 17 - Feb 18 (1yr 1mo) | +2.4% | +17.1% | +14.7% | Tax reform + earnings support ⬆️⬆️ Trade-war volatility ⬇️⬇️ COVID crash and rapid rebound ⬇️⬇️⬇️ / ⬆️⬆️⬆️ |
| Janet L. Yellen | Barack Obama | Feb 14 - Jan 17 (2yr 11mo) | +3.4% | +29.2% | +25.7% | Late-cycle expansion ⬆️⬆️ Gradual policy normalization ⬇️/⬆️ Low inflation backdrop ⬆️ |
| Ben S. Bernanke | Barack Obama | Jan 09 - Jan 14 (5yr) | +11.0% | +169.2% | +158.2% | GFC trough-to-recovery base effect ⬆️⬆️⬆️ QE + zero-rate policy ⬆️⬆️⬆️ Eurozone debt stress episodes ⬇️⬇️ |
| Ben S. Bernanke | George W. Bush | Feb 06 - Jan 09 (2yr 11mo) | +6.3% | -31.5% | -37.8% | Housing bust acceleration ⬇️⬇️⬇️ Global financial crisis ⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️ Emergency liquidity response ⬆️ |
| Alan Greenspan | George W. Bush | Jan 01 - Jan 06 (5yr) | +13.5% | +12.1% | -1.4% | Dot-com unwind aftermath ⬇️⬇️⬇️ 9/11 shock then easing cycle ⬇️⬇️ / ⬆️ Housing/credit boom build-up ⬆️⬆️ |
| Alan Greenspan | Bill Clinton | Jan 93 - Jan 01 (8yr) | +23.0% | +260.6% | +237.6% | Productivity + tech boom ⬆️⬆️⬆️ Disinflationary backdrop ⬆️⬆️ Valuation expansion into late cycle ⬆️⬆️⬆️ |
| Alan Greenspan | George H. W. Bush | Jan 89 - Jan 93 (4yr) | +17.8% | +72.6% | +54.8% | Early-90s recession ⬇️⬇️ S&L and credit drag ⬇️ Recovery with falling inflation ⬆️⬆️ |
| Alan Greenspan | Ronald Reagan | Aug 87 - Jan 89 (1yr 5mo) | +6.0% | -5.6% | -11.6% | 1987 crash aftermath ⬇️⬇️⬇️ Fast stabilization response ⬆️⬆️ Late-80s inflation concerns ⬇️ |
| Paul A. Volcker | Ronald Reagan | Jan 81 - Aug 87 (6yr 7mo) | +31.1% | +156.5% | +125.5% | Volcker disinflation push ⬆️⬆️⬆️ 1981–82 recession ⬇️⬇️ Long bull-market launch ⬆️⬆️⬆️ |
| Paul A. Volcker | Jimmy Carter | Aug 79 - Jan 81 (1yr 5mo) | +18.3% | +22.5% | +4.2% | Volcker tightening pivot ⬇️⬇️ Recession risk rising ⬇️⬇️ Inflation expectations reset attempts ⬆️ |
| G. William Miller | Jimmy Carter | Mar 78 - Aug 79 (1yr 5mo) | +16.2% | +15.8% | -0.4% | Policy credibility erosion ⬇️⬇️ Weak dollar + commodity stress ⬇️⬇️ Inflation persistence ⬇️⬇️⬇️ |
| Arthur F. Burns | Jimmy Carter | Jan 77 - Jan 78 (1yr) | +6.8% | -10.6% | -17.5% | Stagflation building ⬇️⬇️⬇️ Energy shock pressure ⬇️⬇️ Weak real-return backdrop ⬇️⬇️ |
| Arthur F. Burns | Gerald Ford | Aug 74 - Jan 77 (2yr 5mo) | +17.6% | +52.4% | +34.7% | Post-1974 rebound ⬆️⬆️⬆️ Inflation remained elevated ⬇️⬇️ Stop-go policy backdrop ⬇️/⬆️ |
| Arthur F. Burns | Richard Nixon | Feb 70 - Aug 74 (4yr 6mo) | +31.0% | -12.8% | -43.7% | Bretton Woods breakdown ⬇️⬇️ Oil embargo shock + stagflation ⬇️⬇️⬇️ 1973–74 bear market ⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️ |
| William McC. Martin Jr. | Richard Nixon | Jan 69 - Jan 70 (1yr) | +6.2% | -11.0% | -17.2% | Late-60s inflation pickup ⬇️⬇️ Valuation compression ⬇️⬇️ Growth-slowdown risk ⬇️ |
| William McC. Martin Jr. | Lyndon B. Johnson | Nov 63 - Jan 69 (5yr 2mo) | +16.0% | +37.5% | +21.5% | War + Great Society fiscal impulse ⬆️/⬇️ Inflation pressures built late-cycle ⬇️⬇️ Strong nominal growth ⬆️⬆️ |
| William McC. Martin Jr. | John F. Kennedy | Jan 61 - Nov 63 (2yr 10mo) | +3.2% | +16.8% | +13.7% | Stable low-inflation regime ⬆️⬆️ Early-60s expansion ⬆️⬆️ Improving risk appetite ⬆️ |
| William McC. Martin Jr. | Dwight D. Eisenhower | Jan 53 - Jan 61 (8yr) | +12.0% | +130.9% | +118.9% | 1953–54 and 1957–58 recessions ⬇️⬇️ Strong recoveries in between ⬆️⬆️ Contained inflation overall ⬆️ |
| William McC. Martin Jr. | Harry S. Truman | Apr 51 - Jan 53 (1yr 9mo) | +2.8% | +19.4% | +16.6% | Korean War demand effects ⬇️/⬆️ Accord-era policy transition ⬆️ Post-war normalization ⬆️⬆️ |
| Thomas B. McCabe | Harry S. Truman | Apr 48 - Mar 51 (2yr 11mo) | +8.6% | +33.9% | +25.3% | Post-war inflation volatility ⬇️⬇️ 1949 recession then rebound ⬇️ / ⬆️⬆️ Treasury-Fed Accord setup ⬆️ |
| President | Window | CPI | S&P 500 Return | Approx. Real Investor Gain | Major Events |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | Jan 25 - Present (1yr 3mo) | +4.2% | +22.8% | +18.6% | Inflation normalization trend ⬆️⬆️ Easing-rate expectations ⬆️ AI leadership concentration ⬆️⬆️ |
| Joe Biden | Jan 21 - Jan 25 (4yr) | +21.4% | +68.1% | +46.7% | Inflation surge then disinflation ⬇️⬇️⬇️ / ⬆️ Aggressive rate hikes ⬇️⬇️ AI-led gains ⬆️⬆️⬆️ |
| Donald Trump | Jan 17 - Jan 21 (4yr) | +7.8% | +69.4% | +61.6% | Tax reform + earnings support ⬆️⬆️ Trade-war volatility ⬇️⬇️ COVID crash and rapid rebound ⬇️⬇️⬇️ / ⬆️⬆️⬆️ |
| Barack Obama | Jan 09 - Jan 17 (8yr) | +15.0% | +266.7% | +251.8% | Post-GFC recovery ⬆️⬆️⬆️ QE + low rates ⬆️⬆️⬆️ Low inflation backdrop ⬆️⬆️ |
| George W. Bush | Jan 01 - Jan 09 (8yr) | +20.7% | -23.1% | -43.7% | Dot-com unwind + 9/11 shock ⬇️⬇️⬇️ Housing boom then bust ⬆️⬆️ / ⬇️⬇️⬇️ Global Financial Crisis ⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️ |
| Bill Clinton | Jan 93 - Jan 01 (8yr) | +23.0% | +260.6% | +237.6% | Productivity + tech boom ⬆️⬆️⬆️ Disinflationary backdrop ⬆️⬆️ Valuation expansion into late cycle ⬆️⬆️⬆️ |
| George H. W. Bush | Jan 89 - Jan 93 (4yr) | +17.8% | +72.6% | +54.8% | Early-90s recession ⬇️⬇️ S&L cleanup / credit drag ⬇️ Recovery with disinflation ⬆️⬆️ |
| Ronald Reagan | Jan 81 - Jan 89 (8yr) | +39.0% | +134.3% | +95.3% | Disinflation era tailwind ⬆️⬆️ 1982 recession then long expansion ⬇️⬇️ / ⬆️⬆️⬆️ 1987 crash then stabilization ⬇️⬇️ / ⬆️ |
| Jimmy Carter | Jan 77 - Jan 81 (4yr) | +48.6% | +31.7% | -16.9% | Stagflation peak ⬇️⬇️⬇️ Energy shocks ⬇️⬇️ Volcker tightening pivot ⬇️⬇️ |
| Gerald Ford | Aug 74 - Jan 77 (2yr 5mo) | +17.6% | +52.4% | +34.7% | Post-1974 rebound ⬆️⬆️⬆️ Inflation remained elevated ⬇️⬇️ Stop-go policy backdrop ⬇️/⬆️ |
| Richard Nixon | Jan 69 - Aug 74 (5yr 7mo) | +39.8% | -25.1% | -64.9% | Bretton Woods breakdown ⬇️⬇️ Oil embargo shock ⬇️⬇️⬇️ 1973–74 bear market ⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️ |
| Lyndon B. Johnson | Nov 63 - Jan 69 (5yr 2mo) | +16.0% | +37.5% | +21.5% | War + Great Society fiscal impulse ⬆️/⬇️ Inflation pressures built late-cycle ⬇️⬇️ Strong nominal growth ⬆️⬆️ |
| John F. Kennedy | Jan 61 - Nov 63 (2yr 10mo) | +3.2% | +16.8% | +13.7% | Stable low-inflation regime ⬆️⬆️ Early-60s expansion ⬆️⬆️ Improving risk appetite ⬆️ |
| Dwight D. Eisenhower | Jan 53 - Jan 61 (8yr) | +12.0% | +130.9% | +118.9% | 1953–54 and 1957–58 recessions ⬇️⬇️ Strong recoveries in between ⬆️⬆️ Contained inflation overall ⬆️ |