Jerome H. Powell × Donald TrumpJan 25 - Present (1yr 3mo)Real CAGR +14.0%CPI total+4.2%S&P total+22.8%CPI CAGR+3.3%S&P CAGR+17.9%Inflation normalization trend ⬆️⬆️Easing-rate expectations ⬆️AI leadership concentration ⬆️⬆️
Jerome H. Powell × Joe BidenJan 21 - Jan 25 (4yr)Real CAGR +8.5%CPI total+21.4%S&P total+68.1%CPI CAGR+5.0%S&P CAGR+13.9%Post-COVID reopening ⬆️⬆️Inflation surge then disinflation ⬇️⬇️⬇️ / ⬆️Rapid hikes then AI-led rally ⬇️⬇️ / ⬆️⬆️⬆️
Jerome H. Powell × Donald TrumpFeb 18 - Jan 21 (2yr 11mo)Real CAGR +12.5%CPI total+5.3%S&P total+48.5%CPI CAGR+1.8%S&P CAGR+14.5%Macro regime transition (2018s) ⬆️/⬇️Inflation cycle effects ⬇️⬇️Policy response dynamics ⬆️
Janet L. Yellen × Donald TrumpJan 17 - Feb 18 (1yr 1mo)Real CAGR +13.2%CPI total+2.4%S&P total+17.1%CPI CAGR+2.2%S&P CAGR+15.7%Tax reform + earnings support ⬆️⬆️Trade-war volatility ⬇️⬇️COVID crash and rapid rebound ⬇️⬇️⬇️ / ⬆️⬆️⬆️
Janet L. Yellen × Barack ObamaFeb 14 - Jan 17 (2yr 11mo)Real CAGR +7.9%CPI total+3.4%S&P total+29.2%CPI CAGR+1.2%S&P CAGR+9.2%Late-cycle expansion ⬆️⬆️Gradual policy normalization ⬇️/⬆️Low inflation backdrop ⬆️
Ben S. Bernanke × Barack ObamaJan 09 - Jan 14 (5yr)Real CAGR +19.4%CPI total+11.0%S&P total+169.2%CPI CAGR+2.1%S&P CAGR+21.9%GFC trough-to-recovery base effect ⬆️⬆️⬆️QE + zero-rate policy ⬆️⬆️⬆️Eurozone debt stress episodes ⬇️⬇️
Ben S. Bernanke × George W. BushFeb 06 - Jan 09 (2yr 11mo)Real CAGR -14.0%CPI total+6.3%S&P total-31.5%CPI CAGR+2.1%S&P CAGR-12.2%Housing bust acceleration ⬇️⬇️⬇️Global financial crisis ⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️Emergency liquidity response ⬆️
Alan Greenspan × George W. BushJan 01 - Jan 06 (5yr)Real CAGR -0.2%CPI total+13.5%S&P total+12.1%CPI CAGR+2.6%S&P CAGR+2.3%Dot-com unwind aftermath ⬇️⬇️⬇️9/11 shock then easing cycle ⬇️⬇️ / ⬆️Housing/credit boom build-up ⬆️⬆️
Alan Greenspan × Bill ClintonJan 93 - Jan 01 (8yr)Real CAGR +14.4%CPI total+23.0%S&P total+260.6%CPI CAGR+2.6%S&P CAGR+17.4%Productivity + tech boom ⬆️⬆️⬆️Disinflationary backdrop ⬆️⬆️Valuation expansion into late cycle ⬆️⬆️⬆️
Alan Greenspan × George H. W. BushJan 89 - Jan 93 (4yr)Real CAGR +10.0%CPI total+17.8%S&P total+72.6%CPI CAGR+4.2%S&P CAGR+14.6%Early-90s recession ⬇️⬇️S&L and credit drag ⬇️Recovery with falling inflation ⬆️⬆️
Alan Greenspan × Ronald ReaganAug 87 - Jan 89 (1yr 5mo)Real CAGR -7.9%CPI total+6.0%S&P total-5.6%CPI CAGR+4.2%S&P CAGR-4.0%1987 crash aftermath ⬇️⬇️⬇️Fast stabilization response ⬆️⬆️Late-80s inflation concerns ⬇️
Paul A. Volcker × Ronald ReaganJan 81 - Aug 87 (6yr 7mo)Real CAGR +10.7%CPI total+31.1%S&P total+156.5%CPI CAGR+4.2%S&P CAGR+15.4%Volcker disinflation push ⬆️⬆️⬆️1981–82 recession ⬇️⬇️Long bull-market launch ⬆️⬆️⬆️
Paul A. Volcker × Jimmy CarterAug 79 - Jan 81 (1yr 5mo)Real CAGR +2.5%CPI total+18.3%S&P total+22.5%CPI CAGR+12.6%S&P CAGR+15.4%Volcker tightening pivot ⬇️⬇️Recession risk rising ⬇️⬇️Inflation expectations reset attempts ⬆️
G. William Miller × Jimmy CarterMar 78 - Aug 79 (1yr 5mo)Real CAGR -0.2%CPI total+16.2%S&P total+15.8%CPI CAGR+11.2%S&P CAGR+10.9%Policy credibility erosion ⬇️⬇️Weak dollar + commodity stress ⬇️⬇️Inflation persistence ⬇️⬇️⬇️
Arthur F. Burns × Jimmy CarterJan 77 - Jan 78 (1yr)Real CAGR -16.3%CPI total+6.8%S&P total-10.6%CPI CAGR+6.8%S&P CAGR-10.6%Stagflation building ⬇️⬇️⬇️Energy shock pressure ⬇️⬇️Weak real-return backdrop ⬇️⬇️
Arthur F. Burns × Gerald FordAug 74 - Jan 77 (2yr 5mo)Real CAGR +11.3%CPI total+17.6%S&P total+52.4%CPI CAGR+6.9%S&P CAGR+19.0%Post-1974 rebound ⬆️⬆️⬆️Inflation remained elevated ⬇️⬇️Stop-go policy backdrop ⬇️/⬆️
Arthur F. Burns × Richard NixonFeb 70 - Aug 74 (4yr 6mo)Real CAGR -8.6%CPI total+31.0%S&P total-12.8%CPI CAGR+6.2%S&P CAGR-3.0%Bretton Woods breakdown ⬇️⬇️Oil embargo shock + stagflation ⬇️⬇️⬇️1973–74 bear market ⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️
William McC. Martin Jr. × Richard NixonJan 69 - Jan 70 (1yr)Real CAGR -16.2%CPI total+6.2%S&P total-11.0%CPI CAGR+6.2%S&P CAGR-11.0%Late-60s inflation pickup ⬇️⬇️Valuation compression ⬇️⬇️Growth-slowdown risk ⬇️
William McC. Martin Jr. × Lyndon B. JohnsonNov 63 - Jan 69 (5yr 2mo)Real CAGR +3.3%CPI total+16.0%S&P total+37.5%CPI CAGR+2.9%S&P CAGR+6.4%War + Great Society fiscal impulse ⬆️/⬇️Inflation pressures built late-cycle ⬇️⬇️Strong nominal growth ⬆️⬆️
William McC. Martin Jr. × John F. KennedyJan 61 - Nov 63 (2yr 10mo)Real CAGR +4.5%CPI total+3.2%S&P total+16.8%CPI CAGR+1.1%S&P CAGR+5.6%Stable low-inflation regime ⬆️⬆️Early-60s expansion ⬆️⬆️Improving risk appetite ⬆️
William McC. Martin Jr. × Dwight D. EisenhowerJan 53 - Jan 61 (8yr)Real CAGR +9.5%CPI total+12.0%S&P total+130.9%CPI CAGR+1.4%S&P CAGR+11.0%1953–54 and 1957–58 recessions ⬇️⬇️Strong recoveries in between ⬆️⬆️Contained inflation overall ⬆️
William McC. Martin Jr. × Harry S. TrumanApr 51 - Jan 53 (1yr 9mo)Real CAGR +8.9%CPI total+2.8%S&P total+19.4%CPI CAGR+1.6%S&P CAGR+10.7%Korean War demand effects ⬇️/⬆️Accord-era policy transition ⬆️Post-war normalization ⬆️⬆️
Thomas B. McCabe × Harry S. TrumanApr 48 - Mar 51 (2yr 11mo)Real CAGR +7.4%CPI total+8.6%S&P total+33.9%CPI CAGR+2.9%S&P CAGR+10.5%Post-war inflation volatility ⬇️⬇️1949 recession then rebound ⬇️ / ⬆️⬆️Treasury-Fed Accord setup ⬆️